REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P500 - 8th week of the base cycle (20 weeks on average). Despite the fact that S&P and DJIA have broken through all the important resistance levels, the market is technically weak. NASDAQ is lagging far behind and has not yet even come close to the Algol level (https://t.me/jointradeview/161). I believe that it is too early to revise the bearish potential of the current base cycle. 👉 The extreme forecast for September 20-23 seriously slowed down the growth of the markets at the beginning of the week and brought bearish sentiment in the second half of the week. In this situation, a delayed effect is possible. Technically, all three indices look very overbought. The next extreme forecast is October 11-14. 🏆 GOLD - Week 14 of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The base cycle is close to maturity. The probability of a correction is increasing. As expected, the weak extreme forecast for gold on September 23 did not affect the trend, although a delayed effect cannot be ruled ou...

Astrology 🔸 7-year crisis cycle . 🔸 Aspect of Saturn and Neptune in March and June 1980. 🔸 Aspect of Jupiter and Neptune in September 1980. 🔸 Aspect of Saturn and Jupiter in January-March 1981, reinforced by other negative aspects. 🔸 Aspect of the end of the crisis in September 1982 Cycles 🔸 4-year cycle  of the US stock market from February 1978 to August 1982. Events 🔸 The US entered a recession in January 1980 and returned to growth six months later in July 1980. At the same time, the unemployment rate continued to rise. The second recession began in July 1981. The recession ended 16 months later in November 1982. 🔸 The cause of the first recession was the Fed's increase in interest rates to combat inflation and the effects of the energy crisis. The Fed's aggression to reduce inflation caused the second recession.  🔸 The stock market crash began in April 1981 and ended in August 1982. The DJIA value at the maximum was 1030, at the minimum 769. The amplitude was abo...

📉 S&P500 - 7th week of the base cycle (20 weeks on average). With titanic efforts, S&P and DJIA finally broke through the level of August 19 (https://t.me/jointradeview/11) and the Algol level (https://t.me/jointradeview/161). As I wrote last week (https://t.me/jointradeview/225), this calls into question the bearish characteristics of the current base cycle. 👉 We continue to work according to our extreme forecasts. They do not depend on the bullish or bearish state of the market and bring good stable income. The next extreme forecast for September 20-23 (https://t.me/jointradeview/20) is expected on Monday. Let's see how it will affect the overheated market. 🏆 GOLD - Week 13 of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The correction to the resistance level of August 19 promised last week (https://t.me/jointradeview/225) has worked out for gold. The expected bullish trend is in full swing. As I wrote in mid-August (https://t.me/jointradeview/197), gold has entered uncharted ter...

📈 S&P500 - 6th week of the base cycle (20 weeks on average). The market found strength to get close to the level of August 19. The fate of the base cycle (bear or bull) depends this week on the breakout of the level of August 19 and the Algol level (https://t.me/jointradeview/161). If the levels are broken, the concept of the bearish cycle of 2024 will have to be revised. Otherwise, I can’t add anything new to the previous detailed post (https://t.me/jointradeview/220). 🏆 GOLD - 12th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The consolidation that began on August 19 finally broke through the upper boundary of the range, bouncing off its lower level. Continuation of the classic bullish trend, as promised (https://t.me/jointradeview/207). Note that the extreme forecast for September 3 has generally worked out. A correction to the level of August 19, the broken consolidation level, is possible this week. The next extreme forecast for gold is September 23. 🛢 CRUDE - the 15th week of...

 💸 DOLLAR-YEN - Week 5 of the base cycle (25 weeks on average), which began on August 5 at the predicted Mercury retrograde (https://t.me/jointradeview/116). The dollar-yen pair is at the end of a 4-year cycle, see the April post (https://t.me/jointradeview/52). ⚠️ Last week (https://t.me/jointradeview/213) I wrote that the dollar-yen pair formed a semblance of a double bottom. This week, the dollar-yen pair drew a full-fledged double bottom at the level of the beginning of the base cycle. Support for the end of December 2023 is approximately at this level. If we break through these levels downwards, the current base cycle will be bearish. ☝️ There is no signal of the end of the 4-year cycle yet. If the bearish base cycle is confirmed, the end of the 4-year cycle could be very intense (see chart in April post (https://t.me/jointradeview/52)). 👉 See also review and forecast 2.9-6.9 for S&P (https://t.me/jointradeview/220), gold (https://t.me/jointradeview/222) and oil (https:/...

  🛢 CRUDE - Week 14 of the base cycle (28 weeks). 🔺 The extreme forecast for crude on September 3 (https://t.me/jointradeview/83) could not stop crude on the breakout of the lower border of the large triangle. After such breakouts, before continuing the movement, the price often returns to the breakout line or back to the triangle. Also, the breakout can be false, which will be confirmed by a breakout of the upper border of the triangle. 🐻 The current basic cycle looks bearish, as the price broke the level of the beginning of the cycle (see the weekly chart). According to the timing, the end of the cycle is expected in November-December 2024. My bearish sentiment (https://t.me/jointradeview/140) for oil in the long term remains. The next extreme forecast for oil is on September 23. 👉 See also review and forecast 2.9-6.9 for S&P (https://t.me/jointradeview/220), gold (https://t.me/jointradeview/222) and yen (https://t.me/jointradeview/224). #crude

 🏆 GOLD - Week 11 of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). 👉 Our extreme forecast on August 19 (https://t.me/jointradeview/15) held gold at the resistance of 2560 on the futures for 3 weeks. I myself did not expect that the planetary tornado I promised in February on August 19 would have such a harsh impact on the upward trend of gold. On August 16 they wrote: ☝️ If some unpleasant events happen over the weekend or at the beginning of the week, then this is definitely a bullish trend. On the other hand, a serious collapse of the stock market can drag gold along with it. Well, retrograde Mercury is not over yet, what a cheater (https://t.me/jointradeview/146). 👉 Our extreme forecast on September 3 (https://t.me/jointradeview/15) turned gold around for 2 days, but the momentum was not enough to break through the resistance. There were no unpleasant surprises, retrograde Mercury deceived everyone again, and the collapsed stock market dragged the yellow metal along with it. 👉 The next ext...

  📉 S&P500 - 5th week of the base cycle (20 weeks on average). Some quotes from previous posts: "Algol will put pressure on the market on July 15, warned about this event (https://t.me/jointradeview/20) at the beginning of the year." " ⚠️ On Monday, an important extreme - the first day of Mercury retrograde (https://t.me/jointradeview/116). Game plan 2: the beginning of a new bearish base cycle on Mercury retrograde with a reversal at the extreme on August 19." "A new cycle began on Mercury retrograde (https://t.me/jointradeview/116), which reversed stock markets on August 5. Ahead is the resistance of the previous top on Algol from July 15 (https://t.me/jointradeview/161) and the planetary tornado on August 19, which we promised at the beginning of the year (https://t.me/jointradeview/11). All the conditions for a potential double top." " 🪐 The extreme forecast for September 3 (https://t.me/jointradeview/20) coincides in timing with the resi...

🐻 In the May post about the medium-term cycle of the US stock market (https://t.me/jointradeview/66), I promised to calculate the probable amplitude of the forecast correction. " 🤞 When to expect the bottom of the current 4-year cycle? If we are close to the top, then taking into account the current 20-week base cycle (https://t.me/jointradeview/54), which has just begun, we can preliminarily talk about October-November 2024. The correction from the top of the 4-year cycle averages from 20 to 50%. When the top of the cycle is reached, we can assume the approximate level of correction." Dividing the skin of an unkilled bear is a thankless task, but I will take the risk. 🪐 If we assume that Algol, which I warned about (https://t.me/jointradeview/161), became the top of the 4-year cycle, the 50-week cycle and the current 20-week base cycle, then it can be taken as a starting point for calculating target correction levels. ☝️ When calculating, I proceed from technical supp...

📉 S&P500 - 4th week of the basic cycle (20 weeks). The planetary tornado of August 19, promised at the beginning of the year, continued to hold back the pressure of the new cycle for the second week, which began on August 5 during Mercury retrograde. Two weeks ago they promised: "we can twitch for a couple of weeks until the end of retrograde." ☝️ Technically, Friday's close looks promising. The picture is similar to the preparation for a breakout of the previous top on Algol from July 15. Retro-Mercury with its antics is over, but a powerful extreme forecast is lurking on Tuesday, September 3, after Labor Day. 🪐 The extreme forecast for September 3 coincides in timing with the resistance on Algol. Uranus (♅), which often contributes to level breakouts, plays a major role in this extreme. However, there is another powerful factor in this extreme that can reverse the market (even after the breakout). 👉 By the way, Uranus is already working, because the DJIA index di...