👀 WEEKLY SUMMARY 19.8-23.8 / FORECAST

📉 S&P500 - 3rd week of the basic cycle (20 weeks). The planetary tornado of August 19, promised at the beginning of the year, held back the pressure of the new cycle all week, which began on August 5 at Mercury retrograde. S&P has not yet reached the level of the previous top on Algol from July 15 either by index or by futures.

👉 This week, the trend prospects depend on a breakout of the resistance level or the formation of a double top. Last week I wrote:

"☝️ For now, we are acting according to game plan 2, but we remember about the tendency of retrograde Mercury to various tricks. A strong extreme forecast is lurking on September 3. This means that we can twitch for a couple of weeks until the end of retrograde."

👉 We are twitching, waiting for the formation. Taking into account the astrological weight of the extreme forecasts on July 15 and August 19 and the general cyclical timing involving a 4-year and 50-week cycles, I continue to assume that this basic cycle may become bearish ending in the fall-winter of 2024.

⚠️ This forecast will be revised with a confident breakout of the resistance of the previous top on Algol from July 15.

🏆 GOLD - 9th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The breakout of the upper border of the Mercury range, which was written about last week, was delayed by the planetary tornado on August 19, promised at the beginning of the year.

✋ An epic breakout did not happen, our extreme forecast suspended the trend, and retrograde Mercury, as always, ruined everything. Nevertheless, the trend is bullish, the correction to the breakout level took place, resistance became support. Everything is classic. The next extreme forecast for gold is September 3.

🛢 CRUDE - week 12 of the base cycle (28 weeks). The extreme forecast for August 19 worked with a tolerance of 2 days, since technically there were two reversal options (marked on the chart). As a result, they broke through MA20 and reversed on August 21 from the lower border of the large triangle, which was written about last week.

👉 A long position was opened on oil on Thursday. The next extreme forecast is September 3.

🐻 Despite the long position at the moment, my bearish sentiment for oil in the long term remains.

💸 USD/JPY - probably week 3 of the base cycle (25 weeks on average), which began on August 5th at Mercury retrograde. The USD/JPY pair is at the stage of completing a 4-year cycle.

🐻 The completion of the 4-year cycle can be very intense (see the chart in the April post). It is possible that the new base cycle will be bearish.

⚠️ This forecast will be revised if the USD/JPY pair forms a double bottom, see the chart.