REVERSALS AND TRENDS

👉 Mercury retrograde is its apparent reverse movement relative to the Earth. In reality, it both rotated and continues to rotate in its orbit. In astrology, it is assumed that the “reverse” movement of Mercury causes disruptions and interference in the areas of life for which it is responsible. 😀 Most consider this phenomenon profanation and quackery, but facts, as Woland said, are the most stubborn thing in the world. 👉 In life, Mercury retrograde manifests itself in the difficulties of mutual understanding and communication, interference in the operation of electronics, and errors in document management. 📈 From the point of view of financial markets, Mercury retrograde is a real cheater. This period is characterized by spontaneous breakthroughs of important levels and unexpected sharp reversals, frequent multidirectional price movements, frequent stops and misfires on targets. The number of false trading signals is much higher than usual. 📉 The period is accompanied by conflicti...

📈 S&P500 - 10th week of the base cycle (20 weeks). The June 20 signal stopped the S&P and NASDAQ, but did not stop the DJIA. The divergence of the indices has turned upside down - typical Jupiter in Gemini. For now we are going according to plan. The next forecast extreme is July 1. ☝️ Interestingly, over the past 130 years, the 4-year US stock market cycle has only peaked 49 months after the start on two occasions. June 2024 is 51 months from March 2020. 🪙 GOLD - 19th week of the basic cycle (15-19 weeks, sometimes up to 26-29 weeks). Our forecast extreme on June 20 sent gold down. The 🐻 bearish scenario is working. Doesn't look like anything extreme. The next forecast extreme is July 1 (week 20 of the cycle). 🛢 OIL - 3rd week of the basic cycle (28 weeks). Our forecast extreme on June 20 slightly delayed the first bullish wave of the new base cycle. The next forecast extreme is July 1. 💸 DOLLAR-YEN - perhaps this is the 1st week of the new cycle. There is a weekly si...

☝️ In a post about the long crude cycle , I suggested that the new 4-year cycle could turn bullish for at least the first year. There are a couple of factors that make this assumption less likely in terms of duration. Negative factors for crude prices 1️⃣ Insufficient correction to complete the 4-year cycle. 👉 You should be prepared for surprises in the form of sharp price dips at extremes and a later end of the base cycle in combination with the 4-year cycle. On the other hand, an insufficient correction may be a sign of an upcoming sideways trend. 2️⃣ Probability of a new sideways or bearish 4-year cycle. 👉 The conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus , which took place in April 2024, on three occasions in 1969, 1983 and 1996 led to an immediate price correction and a bear market for 2-3 years, and in the last case in 2010 - to a sideways trend for 3 years (triangle, see chart) followed by a collapse in oil prices in 2014. ☝️ These points must be taken into account when long-term pl...

💸 DOLLAR-YEN - 25th week of the basic cycle (25 weeks). The cycle is very mature. We have a local double top and an unbroken upper range. The concept is the same. We are waiting for a correction, which can be very intense. There may be an interesting short of the dollar-yen pair for a couple of weeks. 👉 We pay attention to the extremes on June 17 and 20 and daily technical signals. It is possible, of course, that the new cycle has already begun on June 5, but there has not yet been a weekly signal. The next strong extreme is July 1. #yen

 🛢 CRUDE - 2nd week of new base cycle (28 weeks), unless there is a new low. It seems that the signal from June 3, as expected, (https://t.me/jointradeview/133) nevertheless worked at the beginning of a new cycle in oil, which overcame all resistance except the extreme on June 10. 👉 We have a weekly entry signal, the daily signal was on June 6th. If we break through the resistance of the extreme on June 10, we should pay attention to the extremes on June 17 and 20. Remember that oil turns hard with tails. If it makes a new minimum, the cycle parameters will have to be changed. The next forecast extreme is July 1. ☝️ A strong aspect of Jupiter and Uranus (https://t.me/jointradeview/84) in April 2024 will have a significant impact on this basic cycle. Possible scenarios will be available this week in Part 2 of Oil Astrology. Everything is not easy there.

 🪙 GOLD - 18th week of the basic cycle (15-19 weeks, sometimes up to 26-29 weeks). The cycle is mature with signs of a low point. The forecast extreme on June 10 turned gold up. At Friday's close there is a weekly and daily up signal. ⚠️ The situation is not easy. On the one hand, we technically have a very bearish picture: a double top and a dead cat bounce. On the other hand, there is a mature cycle with daily and weekly upside signal. Apart from the prospect of a new base cycle, there is a possibility that 1️⃣ the current base cycle will fall even lower or 2️⃣ the new base cycle will be bearish. ☝️ What is the game plan? Two scenarios. In a mature cycle, you cannot ignore buy signals; you can miss the trend. Attention to June 17 and 20. These extremes are greater for oil, but can also work for gold. 🐂 If they fail to reverse gold, the next stop is at the forecast extreme on July 1st. There we will need to look at where we will be in terms of level (breakout of the maximum or t...

 📈 S&P500 - 9th week of the base cycle (20 weeks). The June 10 forecast extreme combined with the daily signal pushed the S&P and NASDAQ higher as expected. (https://t.me/jointradeview/126) At the same time, both indices are in strict divergence towards the DJIA. Very typical for Jupiter in Gemini (https://t.me/jointradeview/104) - multidirectional movement of correlated assets. ☝️ The 3rd week of the 2nd phase of the cycle begins. If we assume that the length of the 2nd phase will be equal to the 1st phase (6 weeks), then the peak of the phase can be expected somewhere at the end of the 4th week. And there is just the next forecast extreme on July 1. 👉 There are signals on June 17 and 20, but they relate more to oil and gold. In any case, the market has the final say. I hold the position, my stop is pulled up.