REVERSALS AND TRENDS

👉 Mercury retrograde is its apparent reverse movement relative to the Earth. In reality, it both rotated and continues to rotate in its orbit. In astrology, it is assumed that the “reverse” movement of Mercury causes disruptions and interference in the areas of life for which it is responsible. 😀 Most consider this phenomenon profanation and quackery, but facts, as Woland said, are the most stubborn thing in the world. 👉 In life, Mercury retrograde manifests itself in the difficulties of mutual understanding and communication, interference in the operation of electronics, and errors in document management. 📈 From the point of view of financial markets, Mercury retrograde is a real cheater. This period is characterized by spontaneous breakthroughs of important levels and unexpected sharp reversals, frequent multidirectional price movements, frequent stops and misfires on targets. The number of false trading signals is much higher than usual. 📉 The period is accompanied by conflicti...

📈 S&P500 - 10th week of the base cycle (20 weeks). The June 20 signal stopped the S&P and NASDAQ, but did not stop the DJIA. The divergence of the indices has turned upside down - typical Jupiter in Gemini. For now we are going according to plan. The next forecast extreme is July 1. ☝️ Interestingly, over the past 130 years, the 4-year US stock market cycle has only peaked 49 months after the start on two occasions. June 2024 is 51 months from March 2020. 🪙 GOLD - 19th week of the basic cycle (15-19 weeks, sometimes up to 26-29 weeks). Our forecast extreme on June 20 sent gold down. The 🐻 bearish scenario is working. Doesn't look like anything extreme. The next forecast extreme is July 1 (week 20 of the cycle). 🛢 OIL - 3rd week of the basic cycle (28 weeks). Our forecast extreme on June 20 slightly delayed the first bullish wave of the new base cycle. The next forecast extreme is July 1. 💸 DOLLAR-YEN - perhaps this is the 1st week of the new cycle. There is a weekly si...

☝️ In a post about the long crude cycle , I suggested that the new 4-year cycle could turn bullish for at least the first year. There are a couple of factors that make this assumption less likely in terms of duration. Negative factors for crude prices 1️⃣ Insufficient correction to complete the 4-year cycle. 👉 You should be prepared for surprises in the form of sharp price dips at extremes and a later end of the base cycle in combination with the 4-year cycle. On the other hand, an insufficient correction may be a sign of an upcoming sideways trend. 2️⃣ Probability of a new sideways or bearish 4-year cycle. 👉 The conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus , which took place in April 2024, on three occasions in 1969, 1983 and 1996 led to an immediate price correction and a bear market for 2-3 years, and in the last case in 2010 - to a sideways trend for 3 years (triangle, see chart) followed by a collapse in oil prices in 2014. ☝️ These points must be taken into account when long-term pl...

💸 DOLLAR-YEN - 25th week of the basic cycle (25 weeks). The cycle is very mature. We have a local double top and an unbroken upper range. The concept is the same. We are waiting for a correction, which can be very intense. There may be an interesting short of the dollar-yen pair for a couple of weeks. 👉 We pay attention to the extremes on June 17 and 20 and daily technical signals. It is possible, of course, that the new cycle has already begun on June 5, but there has not yet been a weekly signal. The next strong extreme is July 1. #yen

 🛢 CRUDE - 2nd week of new base cycle (28 weeks), unless there is a new low. It seems that the signal from June 3, as expected, (https://t.me/jointradeview/133) nevertheless worked at the beginning of a new cycle in oil, which overcame all resistance except the extreme on June 10. 👉 We have a weekly entry signal, the daily signal was on June 6th. If we break through the resistance of the extreme on June 10, we should pay attention to the extremes on June 17 and 20. Remember that oil turns hard with tails. If it makes a new minimum, the cycle parameters will have to be changed. The next forecast extreme is July 1. ☝️ A strong aspect of Jupiter and Uranus (https://t.me/jointradeview/84) in April 2024 will have a significant impact on this basic cycle. Possible scenarios will be available this week in Part 2 of Oil Astrology. Everything is not easy there.

 🪙 GOLD - 18th week of the basic cycle (15-19 weeks, sometimes up to 26-29 weeks). The cycle is mature with signs of a low point. The forecast extreme on June 10 turned gold up. At Friday's close there is a weekly and daily up signal. ⚠️ The situation is not easy. On the one hand, we technically have a very bearish picture: a double top and a dead cat bounce. On the other hand, there is a mature cycle with daily and weekly upside signal. Apart from the prospect of a new base cycle, there is a possibility that 1️⃣ the current base cycle will fall even lower or 2️⃣ the new base cycle will be bearish. ☝️ What is the game plan? Two scenarios. In a mature cycle, you cannot ignore buy signals; you can miss the trend. Attention to June 17 and 20. These extremes are greater for oil, but can also work for gold. 🐂 If they fail to reverse gold, the next stop is at the forecast extreme on July 1st. There we will need to look at where we will be in terms of level (breakout of the maximum or t...

 📈 S&P500 - 9th week of the base cycle (20 weeks). The June 10 forecast extreme combined with the daily signal pushed the S&P and NASDAQ higher as expected. (https://t.me/jointradeview/126) At the same time, both indices are in strict divergence towards the DJIA. Very typical for Jupiter in Gemini (https://t.me/jointradeview/104) - multidirectional movement of correlated assets. ☝️ The 3rd week of the 2nd phase of the cycle begins. If we assume that the length of the 2nd phase will be equal to the 1st phase (6 weeks), then the peak of the phase can be expected somewhere at the end of the 4th week. And there is just the next forecast extreme on July 1. 👉 There are signals on June 17 and 20, but they relate more to oil and gold. In any case, the market has the final say. I hold the position, my stop is pulled up.

♓️ The zodiac sign Pisces is associated with the oil market. Oil is ruled by the planets Neptune (♆) and Jupiter (♃). In other words, the price of oil is directly or indirectly influenced by the aspects of these planets. For example, on March 7, 2022, the historical maximum of oil and the maximum of the long 4-year oil cycle occurred. This event occurred on the Sun aspect to the conjunction of Neptune and Jupiter in Pisces. The aspects of the planets are known in advance. 👉 Saturn - the planet of restrictions and reductions - entered Pisces (the sign of oil) in March 2023 and will remain here until May 2025. This event was followed by serious restrictions and limits on the oil market. The G7 initiated a price threshold of $60 per barrel for Russian oil. Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched initiatives to reduce production. On the demand side, SPR (US Strategic Petroleum Reserves) has fallen to its lowest level since the 1980s. All these restrictions contributed to an increase in oil ...

📈 S&P500 - 8th week of the base cycle (20 weeks). The 2nd phase of the cycle is working as promised. S&P and NASDAQ broke through the May extreme, but not by much 😁. Both indices show slight divergence. DJIA is in bearish mode. We are waiting to see how the market behaves at the forecast extreme on June 10 (+1 day). There are still chances to continue the upward movement. I hold the position, my stop is pulled up. 🪙 GOLD - 17th week of the basic cycle (15-19 weeks). The cycle is very mature. The weak signal from June 3 worked, but it was only enough for the third top promised a week ago. Perhaps the extreme on June 7-10 worked for a reversal from the third peak, but we need to wait for June 10 and look at the behavior of gold and indicators. Estimated levels for the nearest futures are 2310 (reached) and 2260. If the downward movement continues, the next extremes will be June 17 and 20 (weak signals). 🛢 OIL - 26th week of the basic cycle (28 weeks). The cycle is very mature...

☝️ Over the past 120 years, all but one of the major market crashes occurred under a Republican president. One collapse under a Democratic president in 1966 was moderate at about 25 percent. Moreover, market highs since 1900 have been reached under every Republican president, which has not happened under three Democratic presidents. What does this mean: 1️⃣ This suggests a low probability of a major market crash of over 25 percent before the 2028 election if a Democratic president wins the 2024 election. 2️⃣ The success of a Republican president could statistically mean the likelihood of an all-time high and a fall in US stock markets of over 25 percent before the 2028 election. Market situation: 3️⃣ Taking into account the completion of the long 18-year cycle  of the US stock market in the range of 2025-2028, the chances are quite high that a Republican will become the US President in 2024. 4️⃣ Also, given that over the past 120 years under a Democratic president the stock market ...

⚠️ On June 3, gold closed on astrological and technical signals that could signal a reversal and the start of a new base cycle. The astro signal is not strong (it was not even mentioned in the forecasts), but consists entirely of elements related to gold. ☝️ There is also a possibility that this could be the beginning of a movement towards that very third peak that I mentioned yesterday as an option. Will it be a new cycle, a third peak, or just a false signal - we will find out in the process.

📈 S&P500 - 7th week of the base cycle (20 weeks). Rollback as promised. It looks like the beginning of the 2nd phase of the cycle. There is a strong divergence between the S&P/NASDAQ and the DJIA. On Friday there is a daily up signal. To confirm bullish intentions, markets need to break through the May extreme level. There are doubts about the DJIA. If they don’t break through, the prospects are bearish. I hold the position, my stop is pulled up. The next forecast extreme is June 7-10. 🪙 GOLD - 16th week of the basic cycle (15-19 weeks). The cycle is very mature in the 3rd phase with a double top. The main supports have been broken. The next forecast extremes are June 7-10 (in 1 week) and July 1 (in 4 weeks). Approximate levels for the nearest futures are 2310 and 2260. The reversal will be shown by technical indicators. Option: Since we have two strong extremes within the same cycle, three weeks apart, gold could make another top in June. Under control. 🛢 OIL - 25th week of...