REVERSALS AND TRENDS

📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here . My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post. ⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury  – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7. 🏆 GOLD – 5th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). After a brief correction at the pivot forecast on March 19 (see the previous post), gold resumed its bullish trend at the extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury . ⚠️ Holding the long position...

📉 S&P500 – 10th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13, now in the second phase. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here . The expected range for the base cycle low is mid-May to mid-June. At this point, I anticipate a reversal between the extreme forecasts of June 16 and June 23, marking the start of a new 4-year cycle. The beginning of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a 4-year cycle can be very strong. 👉 Meanwhile, retrograde Venus and Mercury are predictably working against each other. As I mentioned in early March  and in previous posts, retrograde Venus played out with a one-week lag upward. Retrograde Mercury on March 17 did not support the phase start as I expected last week; instead, it delayed the bullish move but lacked the energy to reverse it. Venus remains the stronger influence. The situation resembles the beginning of th...

📉 S&P500 – 9th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here . Retrograde Venus, which typically supports bulls, aligned with the bear this year and reinforced the decline. 👉 As I mentioned in early March  and in the last post, retrograde Venus played out this week with a one-week lag upwards. The reversal was confirmed by the extreme forecast on March 17, as expected. This is classic – the start of retrograde Mercury . The setup suggests the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. ⚠️ Given that we are in a bearish base cycle, the second phase is also expected to be bearish – a short rally followed by a sharp drop below the opening level. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 17. Since retrograde Mercury falls on a Saturday, it may have already played out on Friday, marking...

📉 S&P500 – 8th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13—still in Phase 1. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels were outlined in the previous post . Based on cycle timing and structure, signs of Phase 1 completion are emerging. 👉 Retrograde Venus  pushed indices lower after Friday’s attempt to bounce. On March 3, the extreme forecast provided an excellent intraday shorting opportunity right after the regular trading session opened—the market never looked back. ⚠️ Short positions remain from January 24 or the triple top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 17—a classic setup coinciding with the start of retrograde Mercury . At the beginning of the week of March 10, there’s a chance of retrograde Venus retracement lagging upwards (mentioned in the last report . This could mark the closure of Phase 1 of the base cycle. 🏆 GOLD – 17th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). ...

🐻 In my May post last year about the U.S. stock market’s mid-term cycle , I promised to estimate the probable amplitude of the forecasted correction in the current cycle. "When should we expect the bottom of the current 4-year cycle? If we are near the top, considering the current 20-week base cycle that has just begun, we can preliminarily talk about October-November 2024. The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%. Once the cycle’s peak is reached, we will be able to estimate the approximate correction level." 👉 I already made a numerical forecast in early September, but it turned out to be premature. Another base cycle was needed to form the peak of the long cycle, which is now in the correction phase. ☝️ Assuming that: 🔸 The December 9 extreme forecast, made at the beginning of 2024 , became the peak of the 4-year and 50-week cycles. On the futures chart, this level is the absolute maximum—see the futures chart. 🔸 The double top ...

📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle. 👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3. ⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December . The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market co...