REVERSALS AND TRENDS

☝️ Please note how weak the start of the 3rd phase of the basic gold cycle (15-18 weeks) is. There is every chance that it will be bearish. Perhaps the top of the current base cycle has already taken place. The market has not eaten up the tail of April 12th.

👉 I would like to draw attention to the maximum oil from April 5, 2024. It is possible that this high could become the top point of the current base oil cycle. ☝️ The basic oil cycle is about 28 weeks, sometimes a little less. Now we are in the 20th week of the basic cycle, the cycle is quite mature and perhaps its peak has already been passed. Oil correction is already underway. The base (lowest point) of the cycle can be reached closer to June (24th week) - July (28th week).

👌 The extreme forecast for gold on April 26, 2024 was confirmed. It coincided closely with the bottom of phase 2 of the current gold base cycle on April 23rd. ☝️ Week 11 of the basic 18-week cycle begins. The next forecast extreme is May 17-20. This will be week 13-14 - a great time for the top of the cycle.

👌 The extreme forecast (https://t.me/jointradeview/20) for the US stock market on April 22, 2024 was confirmed. According to the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DJ30 futures, it fell on April 19. Closing short positions during this period was the most optimal. ☝️ With a high degree of probability, a new 20-week cycle of the US stock market has begun. The beginning of any cycle is always bullish, so opening long positions on the technical signal on April 22 has the most optimal ratio of risk and potential profit. 👉 The end of Mercury's retrograde period on April 25 should ease pressure on market sectors related to artificial intelligence, technology and communications. ☝️ There are two scenarios for the development of the new base cycle (20 weeks), taking into account the forecast of the extremum of US stock indices on August 19, 2024. 1️⃣ If the market breaks the highs of March 21st and April 1st, it will likely be a bullish cycle and possibly new highs with a cycle top around August 19t...

✋ I can’t get over the rise of the US dollar against the Japanese yen to a 34-year high. The medium-term dollar-yen cycle is about 4 years. 3.5 years have passed since the beginning of the current cycle; the top of a bullish cycle is often reached in the 4th year. ☝️ The basic cycle of the dollar-yen pair is 25 weeks. The 18th week of the base cycle begins, the cycle is quite mature and its peak is close. In the near future, there is a possibility of a correction in the dollar in this time range, reaching the base cycle bottom sometime in June. Content Hub - Articles Index - Library / Archive #yen #USDJPY

☝️ Historical retrospectives show that the longest cycle of the U.S. stock market spans approximately 72 years . In recent history, there have been only three such supercycles . 1️⃣ The first supercycle ended with the Panic of 1857 , which gradually transitioned into the Long Depression of 1873–1879 . 2️⃣ The second supercycle ended with the Great Depression of 1929–1932 . 3️⃣ The third supercycle ended with the Great Recession – the financial crisis of 2007–2008 ( https://t.me/jointradeview/401 ). 👉 Technically, the third supercycle ended in March 2009 on a hard Saturn–Uranus aspect , whose oppositions and conjunctions have a 100% correlation with long-term U.S. market cycles. We are currently at the beginning of the fourth supercycle . 👉 Each supercycle consists of two long-term cycles of approximately 36 years . These 36-year cycles are further divided into two phases of 18 years . Historically, most 18-year cycles fall in a range from 15 to 21 years . Given that 2024 is t...

👉 Gold has been stubbornly trying to eat the tail from April 12th all week. The market has not made a key reversal, but the extreme of April 12, presumably caused by the middle of the Mercury retrograde period, has not been broken.

👉 The 26th week of the cycle begins, during which the S&P 500 is expected to reach the low of the base cycle and begin a new base cycle. Let me remind you that I predicted the extreme for the US stock market at the beginning of the year on April 22 based on powerful astrological formations on April 21 and 22. 👉 Taking into account the last day of Mercury retrograde on April 25, the extreme for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ may occur on April 24-26. The beginning, middle, and end of Mercury's retrograde period often become cycle extremes. In this cycle, April 1, the first day of the retrograde period, became the high or second top of the market depending on the index (see previous posts). 👉 The DJ30 index showed a key reversal on the chart on Friday. The market will eat such a tail only on some very unpleasant news. Although the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are not yet showing technical signs of a reversal, there is reason to believe that the DJ30 extreme has already been reached, alt...

→ On Friday, April 12, gold showed a key reversal. It is quite difficult to break such a tail back. It’s too early for the forecast extreme on April 26th. → If this is an extreme of the cycle, then perhaps it is caused by the middle of the Mercury retrograde period. If you remember, I already wrote that quite often the beginning, middle and end of the Mercury retrograde period become cycle extremes. Although, given the chaos that Mercury retrograde brings, it's still possible. → We tentatively make the assumption that closer to April 26, the lower extremum of the second phase of the current base gold cycle will be reached. This will be the 11th week of a cycle that averages 15-18 weeks. The first phase lasted 5 weeks. The 4th week of the second phase begins. We monitor technical indicators.

🚀 Mercury retrograde continues to bring chaos, volatility and uncertainty to financial markets. The features of this period are clearly visible on the graph. 👉 The S&P 500 is obviously in a state of correction. The next extreme for the S&P 500 was predicted for April 22. This is the 25th week of a very mature cycle. It looks like the current cycle will end this week or next week. The beginning of a new cycle will technically be indicated by an upward reversal, since the beginning of any (even bearish) cycle is always bullish. The beginning of the cycle is the time to open long positions. 👌 The extreme forecast for the US stock market on March 20, 2024 was confirmed. According to the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DJ30 futures, it fell on March 21. Closing long positions during this period was the most optimal.

→ Gold has broken through a large Fibonacci trend target and continues to move up the trend, and the trend is your friend. Mercury retrograde can make serious adjustments to the sequence of this movement. → At the Fibonacci target, I closed the second part of my gold position. I am afraid that the feet may not work well during Mercury retrograde. Perhaps I will regret that I did not hold until the 20th of April, but the profit on this deal in any case exceeded all expectations. → The next forecast extreme for gold falls on the 20th of April. This will be the 11th week of the cycle, that is, more than half of the cycle, where the top of the cycle and the beginning of a correction are possible.

👉 The option to continue the cycle in the form of a correction, promised in the previous post, has been implemented. The markets have not yet broken the March lows, but their behavior does not look like the beginning of a new cycle, which is always bullish. Perhaps March 21 will still become the upper extreme of the current cycle. ☝️ A feature of the current situation is the period of Mercury retrograde from April 1 to April 25, which on daily charts often contributes to more frequent multidirectional price movements, unexpected breakdowns of support and resistance lines, more frequent stops and misfires on targets. ☝️ Quite often, the beginning, middle and end of the Mercury retrograde period become cycle extremes. In our case, April 1 was marked by a double top for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30. NASDAQ shows bearish intermarket divergence. 👉 24 weeks for a stock market cycle is a lot. If a correction has not yet occurred, in cycle theory this means that a potential correction co...

→ The classic “cup with a handle” finally pushed gold to continue the trend. → The next forecast extreme for gold falls on April 26. This will be the 11th week of the cycle, that is, more than half of the cycle, where the top of the cycle and the beginning of a correction are possible. We will monitor technical indicators.