REVERSALS AND TRENDS

→ The gold market continues to be in a correction, even after reaching a new high on the news about the unchanged rates on Wednesday. → On Monday and Tuesday, it was technically clear that it clearly did not want to fall and market participants were waiting for news, but there was still not enough fuel for the immediate continuation of the trend.

👉 The cycle is very mature in time, but its end has not yet been indicated by a clear correction. This happens on powerful trends at the beginning of longer cycles (and we are at the beginning of a 50-week cycle, as you remember). 👉 Of the three NASDAQ stock indices, the only one showed something similar to an extreme. With the forecast for March 20, technically the extreme appeared on March 18 at the beginning of last week. But it doesn't look like a correction. 👉 Thus, we tentatively consider March 18 to be the beginning of a new cycle (the next 20 weeks). The beginning of any cycle is always bullish. The next reference point is April 20. ☝️ You should pay attention to the retro-Mercury period from April 1 to April 25. This is a separate topic that we will discuss in detail later. For now, it's important to know that the beginning, middle, and end of a Mercury retrograde period often become cycle extremes. ✋ Option: If the breakout on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones turns ou...

→ The gold market is in a forecast correction, the bullish sentiment remains, the expected rollback range is shown in the chart.

👉 On Friday, all three correlated markets S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones closed down intensively, eating the tails of the previous day. At the same time, NASDAQ and Dow Jones closed below MA20. These are strong bearish signs. 👉 Next week promises to be intense. The expected correction may appear. Let me remind you that one of the extremes for the S&P 500 was predicted for March 20. It is strange that the market fell slightly short of the extreme on March 20th.

→ The 3rd week of the cycle has ended, gold has reached previous extremes according to the forecast and has broken through powerful resistance, which it hit in August 2020 and March 2022. The profit per futures contract was about 12K USD. → The market is clearly overbought, so a small correction to the former resistance line, which can now become a support line, cannot be ruled out. → In the future of the current cycle, the growth of gold has not yet been worked out in any case. Personally, I took profit on half of the position, I will hold the rest for now, perhaps I will add it again during corrections. → I remind you that the next forecast extreme for gold falls on April 26. This will be the 11th week of the cycle, that is, more than half of the cycle, where correction is possible. Closer to the point, we will look at technical indicators.

👉 The 20th week of the cycle begins, and the market is not showing any signs of correction, with the exception of intermarket divergence on the Dow Jones. 👉 However, Friday's close showed a daily bearish signal for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which suggests a correction may begin this week. 👉 Let me remind you that the next forecast extreme for the S&P 500 falls on March 20th. This will be the 21st week of the cycle, that is, the maximum maturity of the cycle.

⚠️ Probable periods of extremes (reversals) of US stock indices in 2024: March 20, April 22, May 20, June 10, July 1, July 15, August 19, September 3, September 20, October 11, October 23, November 4, 9th December. 👉 The periods are determined based on astrological data, and cyclical and technical analysis is used to confirm the formation of extremes as each period approaches. ✋ Not every expected extreme (reversal) will work! It is not known in advance whether the extremum will be a minimum or a maximum. The extreme may work within a certain tolerance in a couple of days. Occasionally, an extreme point does not become a reversal, but acts as a breakout of an important level. 🐂 The extreme low is usually the bottom point (bottom) of a new cycle, which can be either bullish or bearish, but its beginning is always bullish. 🐻 The extreme maximum is usually the top point (top) of the current cycle, followed by a correction to the bottom point of the cycle. ☝️ Cyclical and technical anal...

👉 An interesting phenomenon called intermarket divergence (price divergence between markets of the same type). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ made new highs, but the DOW did not confirm the high. As a rule, it leads to a reversal or correction. 👉 Considering that we expect a correction in the S&P 500 this week, perhaps this factor can be considered as additional confirmation. Let's see.

→ When forecasting for February 26, the extremum actually formed on February 19 (see weekly chart). In general, not bad, you will agree. → Thus, the tolerance was one week. However, cyclical and technical analysis allowed us to pinpoint the entry point as the period approached. → From a cyclical analysis perspective, the week ending February 18 was the 19th week of the cycle. The base cycle of gold is on average 18 weeks. The cycle was clearly mature. → On February 16, technical indicators gave clear buy signals.

⚠️ Probable periods of extremes (reversals) for gold in 2024: February 26, April 26, May 20, June 7-10, July 1, August 19, September 2, October 14, October 28, November 18, December 16. 👉 The periods are determined based on astrological data, and cyclical and technical analysis is used to confirm the formation of extremes as each period approaches. ✋ Not every expected extreme (reversal) will work! It is not known in advance whether the extremum will be a minimum or a maximum. The extreme may work within a certain tolerance in a couple of days. Occasionally, an extreme point does not become a reversal, but acts as a breakout of an important level. 🐂 The extreme low is usually the bottom point (bottom) of a new cycle, which can be either bullish or bearish, but its beginning is always bullish. 🐻 The extreme maximum is usually the top point (top) of the current cycle, followed by a correction to the bottom point of the cycle. ☝️ Cyclical and technical analysis always has the last word...